Lebanon and Israel Conservative Countdown For Peace

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Last update: June/2025

Date	Summary	Links
June 25, 2025	Iran's Deterrence Shattered, Hezbollah Paralyzed A coordinated Israeli and U.S. effort, combining a relentless two-week military campaign against Iran’s missile depots and IRGC command centers targeting its nuclear program. This has shattered Tehran’s deterrent posture and ignited mass protests in major Iranian cities. The regime’s authority is now in tatters, unable to replenish its missile stockpiles or bankroll its Lebanese proxy. With Hassan Nasrallah gone and his lieutenants overmatched, Hezbollah’s military wing is all but paralyzed, and its political cadres are scrambling to preserve what’s left of their influence in Beirut. The two weeks of precise strikes have “severely compromised” Iran’s missile arsenals and air defenses, destroying launchers, storage bunkers, and dual-use facilities in Natanz, Isfahan, and Tehran. With Iran’s deployed weapons hubs disrupted, Hezbollah’s frontline units have already reported ammunition shortfalls and scaled-back patrols. That military squeeze is translating into political pressure in Beirut: centrist and Christian blocs are publicly urging dialogue, while UNIFIL and Lebanese Army coordination with Israel has ticked up. As Iran’s sponsorship wanes, both sides find themselves closer to a tacit, non-belligerence arrangement.	Wikipedia Video
September 27, 2024	Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah Killed Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's key figure in Lebanon’s anti-Israel posture, was killed in an Israeli airstrike in southern Beirut. His death was confirmed the next day. The loss of Nasrallah, a symbol of resistance and confrontation marks a historic turning point. His successor, Naim Qassem, lacks Nasrallah’s charisma and authority, leading to a notably weakened Hezbollah both militarily and politically. This change has opened up rare space within Lebanon’s fractured political system to reconsider its stance toward Israel, with some factions quietly supporting dialogue. Combined with the 2022 maritime agreement, this raises the possibility of a future non-aggression pact or broader economic normalization between Israel and Lebanon.	Wikipedia Video
October 27, 2022	Israel-Lebanon Maritime Border Agreement A U.S. mediated agreement signed by the governments of Israel and Lebanon, establishing a permanent maritime border. While not a peace treaty, it was the first major economic and border deal between the two states, requiring tacit Hezbollah approval.	Wikipedia Video
2021-2022	“Saudi Arabia and Israel quietly prepare ‘deal of the century’” Quiet Gulf talks: Saudi‑Israeli business delegations have met discreetly in Gulf capitals to test public opinion and discuss trade/security. Elite endorsement: Prince Alwaleed bin Talal sees Saudi and Israeli interests as “almost parallel.” U.S. facilitation: Jared Kushner’s back‑channel with MBS and Trump’s direct Riyadh–Tel Aviv flight gave the process real momentum. Big economic sweeteners: Negotiations reportedly include Saudi airspace access for Israeli carriers, major telecom agreements, and an immediate $45 billion package.	Wikipedia Video
September 11, 2020	Israel - United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco Peace Treaty Abraham Accords A series of U.S. brokered agreements that normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations: the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan. It established a new "peace for prosperity" model based on shared economic and security interests, bypassing the traditional "land for peace" formula and fundamentally altering regional diplomacy.	Wikipedia Video
October 26, 1994	Israel - Jordan Peace Treaty Signed by Israeli PM Yitzhak Rabin and Jordanian King Hussein. This second peace treaty further normalized Israel's presence in the region, but also isolated Lebanon and Syria as the primary remaining state-level confrontation front.	Wikipedia Video
October 30, 1991	Madrid Conference Hosted by Spain and co-sponsored by the U.S. and the Soviet Union, this was the first time Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and the Palestinians held direct, public peace talks. It established the framework for future bilateral negotiations.	Wikipedia Video
March 26, 1979	Israel - Egypt Peace Treaty The first Arab nation to make peace with Israel, this treaty was signed by Israeli PM Menachem Begin and Egyptian President Anwar Sadat following the 1978 Camp David Accords. It remains the cornerstone of regional stability.	Wikipedia Video